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Today's news: appreciated by more than 1%, returning to the era of 6.40 & mdash& mdash; On the first trading day of 2021, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar made a strong debut
yesterday, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose more than 800 points during the day, reaching an intraday high of 6.4579; The offshore RMB rose more than 500 points against the US dollar, reaching an intraday high of 6.4417. As of 16:30, the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar were reported at 6.4612 and 6.4437 respectively, both reaching a new high since June 2018
on December 31, 2020, the foreign exchange trading center adjusted the basket currency weight of CFETS RMB exchange rate index and reduced the weight of US dollar for the third time. Industry insiders believe that the adjustment will further expand the flexibility of RMB bilateral exchange rate. Taking into account the scheduled completion of the China EU investment agreement negotiations and the continued contraction of US trade, the dollar weight of the RMB index may continue to decline in the future
The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar stood at 6.50
the RMB exchange rate opened the new year with a sharp rise yesterday. Among them, the onshore RMB broke the 6.50 mark against the US dollar for the first time in two and a half years; The offshore RMB recovered the 6.45 mark against the US dollar, continuously setting a new high since June 2018
this wave of RMB rise, which began in June 2020, will continue in 2021. Industry insiders believe that the positive resonance of economic recovery, export recovery, capital inflow and the weakening of the US dollar will continue to promote the strength of the RMB. In 2021, the RMB exchange rate may show a trend of strengthening first and then stabilizing
the appreciation logic is largely unchanged& ldquo; The current round of RMB exchange rate appreciation driven by factors such as the first recovery of the domestic economy is expected to continue until the first half of 2021& rdquo; Societe Generale research macro team believes that in the second half of 2021, it is necessary to pay attention to the change of US dollar index and the decline rate of social finance, and the RMB may change from appreciation trend to shock trend
seasonal foreign exchange settlement, the decline of the US dollar and other factors are expected to become new driving points. Zhang Jing, a researcher at CITIC * research department, said that the continued downward pressure on the US dollar may become the driving force driving the continued appreciation breakthrough of the RMB exchange rate. It is suggested that the demand for short-term foreign exchange purchase should grasp the window of the first quarter
Zhang Jing believes that in the medium and long term, the central exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may continue to rise, but the space is relatively limited, and the fluctuation will remain high
RMB bilateral exchange rate flexibility may increase
on December 31, 2020, the foreign exchange trading center announced that the weight of the basket of currencies of CFETS RMB exchange rate index will be adjusted from January 1, 2021. The US dollar currency weight was lowered to 0.1879, and the weights of euro, Hong Kong dollar, British pound and Australian dollar were increased
this is the third time that the dollar weight of the index has been lowered. Industry insiders believe that reducing the US dollar weight in the CFETS currency basket is a reasonable adjustment to the trade pattern and structural changes
“ At present, the overall scale of US trade shrinks and the weight of trade volume decreases; The focus of Global trade has shifted, and the trade scale between ASEAN, Europe and China has begun to exceed that between China and the United States& rdquo; Lian Ping, President of Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that if U.S. trade continues to shrink, the dollar weight in the CFETS currency basket will continue to decline
from the perspective of impact effect, since CFETS index is one of the important reference factors set for the central parity of RMB, this adjustment will enhance the impact of the fluctuation of US dollar index on the central parity of RMB
according to Zhang Jing's analysis, the decline in the weight of the US dollar reflects, to a certain extent, the impact of the change of the RMB relative to the US dollar on the CFETS index, but due to the rise in the weight of the euro and sterling, the impact of the fluctuation of the US dollar index on the central parity of the RMB may increase
the flexibility of RMB against the US dollar is also expected to expand. Societe Generale macro research team said that from a long-term perspective, for bilateral exchange rates, this adjustment means that the RMB effective exchange rate operates smoothly & ldquo; Policy anchor & rdquo; Under the, the RMB bilateral exchange rate flexibility is expected to expand in the appreciation band in 2021
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